Coronavirus, Racism, and Politics

Like a bad habit, the Coronavirus is not going away. Half of the year has passed and the infections are yet increasing rapidly. Where New Zealand has been successful in fighting the deadly disease, other countries continue to face different problems to combat this deadly virus.

The USA, which is probably the most economically and structurally sound nation of all, from the get-go, has been ineffective in its strategies to put an end to the virus’ spread. Now with the anti-Black racism protests being staged all across the US, containing the virus spread has become an even daunting task. At a time, when physical distancing is being prescribed as the only solution to battle the virus such protests are taking place all over the world.

Pakistan, which happens to be under tremendous economic burden has chosen not to impose the necessary lockdowns, to prevent the economy from collapsing, to slow down the spread. India, on the other hand, is recording the rise in cases at an alarming rate and has surpassed Spain to become the 5^th worst affected nation by Coronavirus. Iran has officially declared the arrival of the second wave of Coronavirus.

Natural disasters have also played a spoilsport in the fight against Corona. Cyclones Amnphan and Nisarga raised havoc in the subcontinent at a time when it was most susceptible. Such disasters bring about great loss not only to the economy and human life, but also hurt the healthcare strategies. For instance, when hundreds of thousands of people are safeguarded in the relief camps prepared at short notice, maintaining physical distancing is next to impossible. And, do not forget about the Locust attacks!

Coronavirus has terribly affected mankind. The world is getting towards the greatest recession ever. Economies are falling. Governments are failing. Unemployment has reached record highs. Trade is almost dead. People are dying. Those who recover suffer from tremendous mental distress and anxiety, arising not only from the disease but also from the blow that the treatment makes to their pocket. Add to all of it the stigma attached to being infected by Corona. Political turmoil is also reaching the skies. The USA has terminated its relationship with the WHO. China is being cornered for its alleged intentional mishandling of the Corona infection. Hong Kong is witnessing violent protests against China for its liberty. As a society, we are surrounded from all directions by trouble in the form of social, economic, epidemiological evil. All of it seems to be the Devil’s coordinated effort.

The fight against Coronavirus is in full swing. Epidemiologists world over are trying to prepare a vaccine for COVID-19. Pharmacologists and pharmacists are trying to develop its medicine. Another field of study that has proved to be of great assistance is statistics. Statisticians and mathematicians have been making mathematical models to predict the possible influence the virus may have on a particular geographical region. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has put enormous pressure on our hospital system. The functioning heads need up-to-date forecasts of what surplus resources may be entailed in the future. Cognisant approximations of the number of patients who will require hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, ICU infrastructure, etc. in the very near future will significantly enhance the promptness of responses and mitigation strategies.

One of the models that I came across while studying and which I feel could be a great aid in preparing the plan of action is CHIME (COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemic). It is developed by the Predictive Healthcare team at Penn Medicine. It leverages SIR modelling to aid hospitals with capacity planning around COVID-19.

 CHIME lets hospitals input information about their patients and adjust suppositions around the coverage and conduct of COVID-19. It runs a standard SIR model to predict the number of new admissions each day, accompanied by the day-to-day hospital survey. These predictions can be used to develop worst- and best-case pictures to support capacity formulations. The most significant feature in this model is the doubling time. It describes how quickly a disease spreads by predicting the doubling rate of a particular area considering its geographical context and other data.

These desperate times require each one of us to be responsible. Scientists are seeking arduously to invent a solution to this novel problem. The medical fraternity throughout the world is pulling out all the stops and doing a divine job. The least we could do is stay indoors unless for something urgent. We    must    stay    apart    to    do    our    part.  

Note: The author is not related, in any way whatsoever, to anyone at the Penn Medicine and the Predictive Healthcare team.